In 2023, Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) experienced a significant 48.18% surge in market value, buoyed by milestone revenues, notably soaring iPhone sales in the September quarter and record-breaking services revenue in Q4. Despite this, worries arose about lacklustre iPhone 15 sales in China, a key market for Apple, tempering an otherwise robust performance.
The iPhone, vital to Apple’s revenue, witnessed a shifting trend, displaying slower growth and intermittent declines over the past two years, a departure from its historic growth between 2008 and 2015. While 2021 marked a surge and 2022 showed modest growth, unit sales in 2022 dipped to 232.2 million units despite surpassing the 2015 peak.
This fluctuation aligns with Counterpoint Research’s data, indicating a drop in Apple’s premium smartphone market share to 71% in 2023 from the previous year’s 75%. Consequently, a post-New Year’s selloff pushed Apple’s market value below $3 trillion, settling at $2.9 trillion after Barclays downgraded the stock, citing concerns over weakening iPhone 15 sales and the potential impact on future projections.
Technical
Apple’s share price underwent a notable transformation, breaking free from a descending channel pattern and the 100-day moving average, signalling a shift in trajectory. Presently, the stock maintains an upward trend above the 100-day moving average, stemming from a pivotal support level at $165.67 per share formed amid oversold RSI conditions within the descending channel.
Despite surging toward the robust resistance at $198.23 per share formed in Q3 2023, overbought RSI conditions prompted a pullback. The current focus now lies on the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, aligned with the 100-day moving average and serving as a crucial juncture.
A breakdown beneath the 50% level on substantial volume might signal weakened confidence in the stock, potentially opening the door to the $165.67 per share support. Conversely, if the market respects the 50% level as an intermediate support, this could herald a reversal, with the potential for retesting the $198.23 per share resistance level.
Summary
Apple’s dynamic journey in 2023 showcased impressive market gains fuelled by milestone revenues, notably from the services division. Yet, concerns loomed over lacklustre iPhone 15 sales in China, impacting the tech giant’s trajectory. Technical shifts in its share price, amid resistance and support levels, reflect evolving market sentiments, with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level serving as a pivotal point of interest.
Sources: Apple Inc, Reuters, Counterpoint Research, The Street, TradingView
Piece Written By Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst
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