AUDJPY Holds Steady as Australian Labour Market Slumps

Thursday saw the AUDJPY currency pair maintaining a steady course despite Australian data exerting downward pressure on the Australian dollar. The most recent labour statistics revealed that the Australian unemployment rate met market expectations at 3.9%. However, the employment change figure was a significant setback at -65.1K. This substantial decrease nearly wiped out the previous gain of 72.6K, falling well short of the market consensus, which anticipated a 17.6K increase. 

The labour market’s apparent easing wiped out concerns about wage growth, potentially influencing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision in February on whether further tightening measures are necessary. With the market factoring in the possibility of peaked rates, there’s speculation that the RBA may maintain current rates in the upcoming meeting. 

Traders closely following the AUDJPY pair are now turning their attention to Japanese inflation data later this week to gauge the next move for this currency pair. 


On the daily chart, a symmetrical triangle has emerged, with the momentum relatively neutral, as displayed by the 14-day RSI and the convergence of the 50-SMA (blue line) with the 25-SMA (green line). This leaves the potential for a breakout in either direction as the currency pair trades sideways between 96.716 and 97.242. 

If the pair moves below 96.716, the triangle could be at serious risk of a breakdown, as the shift below the 25-SMA and 50-SMA could signal a bearish tilt. The breakdown could push the pair down toward the 100-SMA (orange line) at 95.995 in search of support for a retracement. If support at this level fails, the 61.8% Fibonacci golden ratio could be a level of interest at 95.228. 

However, a breakout above 97.242 could have the opposite effect, putting the dynamic resistance of the triangle under pressure. If a breakout occurs, traders could be looking toward resistance at 97.843 and 98.576 as potential interest levels to the upside in the coming days. 


The AUDJPY maintained its sideways trajectory despite bearish developments in the Australian labour market. Support and resistance at 96.716 and 97.242, respectively, could be worth keeping an eye on, as a movement in either direction could put the symmetrical triangle at risk of a breakout. 

Sources: Koyfin, Tradingview, Reuters 

Piece written by Tiaan van Aswegen, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

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