Bitcoin (BTCUSD) navigates a crucial week brimming with potential price catalysts. The looming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday is the main event. The Fed’s interest rate decision will be keenly watched, with any hawkish signals potentially dampening investor risk appetite and impacting Bitcoin. Lower interest rates, however, could make traditional investments less attractive, potentially driving capital towards Bitcoin.
Adding to the intrigue, Bitcoin sits just days away from entering the pre-halving “danger zone,” a historical period marked by price drops before halving events. Analyst Rekt Capital predicts a retracement of 14-28 days leading up to the halving, scheduled for April 20th. This historical context adds another layer of uncertainty to Bitcoin’s price action.
Technical
The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin’s price is trading tentatively at 68,772.92, slightly below the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, around the 20 and 100-SMA. Price action trades around the 20-SMA (green line) and 100-SMA (orange line) but below the 50-SMA (blue line). The 20-SMA recently broke below the 50-SMA from above and now trades around the 100-SMA. This suggests a potential lack of strong bullish momentum.
Therefore, with upward-sloping RSI (48.37) trading below the 50.00 level, continued decline lower could find significant support at the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level ($65,090.14). A sustained break below the level could confirm the bearish momentum and would likely bring the 50.00% ($62,388.68) and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level ($59,687.21) into play in the short term.
However, short-term trading opportunities could exist towards the all-time high of $73,835.57 should the bulls sustain a break above the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. A break above the initial resistance could confirm the bullish momentum, likely bringing the 23.60% Fibonacci extension level ($77,277.95) within the bulls’ reach in the near term.
Summary
Bitcoin faces a confluence of factors this week. The FOMC decision and the pre-halving jitters could trigger volatility. A sustained break above the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level could signal a bullish breakout towards the all-time high. Conversely, a failure to hold this level might see a retracement towards the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,090.
Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics, Binance, Coin Edition, Coin Telegraph.
Piece written by Mfanafuthi Mhlongo, Trive Financial Market Analyst
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