The EURGBP currency pair is currently navigating a compelling trajectory, propelled by a surge of nearly 50 basis points week-to-date. This surge marks a second consecutive week of positive strides for the pair, emblematic of an intricate relationship between the Euro and the Pound amid economic crosswinds.
The Pound finds itself in a precarious position, swayed by an array of weaker economic indicators from the U.K. This includes a disheartening tumble in U.K. GDP by 0.3% in October, surpassing projections of a 0.1% contraction. The U.K.’s labour market, a linchpin in driving inflation, has also displayed signs of fatigue, with employment growth falling short of expectations.
As the Pound grapples with diminishing industrial and manufacturing prowess, discussions intensify regarding the Bank of England’s potential monetary policy shift. The looming prospect of interest rate adjustments to revitalise the faltering economy heightens anticipation ahead of the BoE’s meeting this week.
However, the imminent market landscape is set to be profoundly shaped by the European Central Bank’s own interest rate decision, coinciding with the BoE’s meeting. As global markets brace for these pivotal announcements, the nuanced interplay between economic data, inflationary pressures, and central bank actions promises to chart the course for the EURGBP pairing.
Technical
The EURGBP currency pair recently underwent a notable shift, succumbing to a downtrend that unfolded with striking technical precision. Breaking below crucial markers—an ascending channel pattern, the 100-day moving average, and pivotal swing low points—signalled a shift in momentum. The downtrend, stemming from the 0.87657 resistance level, set the stage for a compelling narrative.
Amidst this downward trajectory, the pair entered oversold territory based on the Relative Strength Index, prompting a consolidation phase within a rectangular pattern. However, as weaker economic data from the U.K. surfaced, eroding confidence in the Pound, a reversal transpired from the support level at 0.85527.
This reversal catalysed a breakout above the rectangle pattern, accompanied by robust trading volumes—a bullish sign reflecting growing interest in the pair’s upside potential. With the breach above the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level and a potential realignment with the 100-day moving average, bullish traders will likely see the 50% level as a potential upside destination if the prevailing upward momentum endures. Yet, the delicate balance rests on market sentiment. Should sellers regain control, the potential for a downtrend resumption looms, bringing the 0.85527 support level back into focus.
Summary
The EURGBP’s recent rebound reflects a complex interplay between economic forces and technical dynamics. The Pound’s vulnerability, triggered by weaker U.K. economic data, juxtaposed against technical shifts in the pair, underscores the delicate balance defining its trajectory. The impending central bank decisions and market sentiment hold the reins, shaping the pair’s path amid these intricate forces.
Sources: Office for National Statistics, Reuters, Dow Jones News Wires, TradingView
Piece Written By Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst
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