Is the EURUSD Rebound Here to Stay?

The Euro has captured attention amid recent market movements with its notable rally against the steadfast Greenback. The EURUSD currency pair has recently seen a noteworthy resurgence marked by six consecutive days of gains.  

The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts, driven by inflation concerns, has shaped market sentiment and initially provided impetus for the Greenback’s ascent. Notably, policymakers emphasize the importance of sustained evidence of inflation nearing the 2% target. However, its openness to rate cuts has provided tailwinds for the Euro’s ascent in Thursday’s trading session. 

The Euro’s upward trajectory was further bolstered by positive developments within the Euro Area, including an uptick in preliminary Composite PMI for February, surpassing expectations. While Services activity expanded, the manufacturing sector faced continued challenges. Moreover, Euro Area inflation figures for January aligned with expectations at 2.8%, albeit with a slight decrease from the previous month. As the EURUSD pair navigates these dynamics, investors and traders eagerly await insights into what lies ahead for the Euro in the ever-evolving foreign exchange landscape. 


The EURUSD currency pair has witnessed a notable shift in price action dynamics, initially trading in a downtrend within a descending channel pattern below the 100-day moving average.  

However, a change in sentiment became evident as the pair broke out above both the channel and the 100-day moving average. This rally stemmed from support established at the 1.06949 level, coinciding with oversold RSI conditions. 

As the pair approached resistance at the 1.08975 level, upward momentum encountered obstacles, leading to a reversal just below the resistance level amid overbought RSI conditions. With downside pressures emerging, the 100-day moving average could serve as a potential target if bearish momentum persists. Conversely, if the Euro’s strengthening prevails, a full retest of the 1.08975 resistance level could be in play. 


As the EURUSD pair navigates key technical levels, including support at 1.06949 and resistance at 1.08975, market sentiment remains influenced by Federal Reserve policy and Euro Area economic indicators. Traders closely monitor these dynamics amidst a backdrop of evolving foreign exchange dynamics. 

Sources: EUROSTAT, S&P Global, Reuters, TradingView 

Piece Written By Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

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