Monetary Policy Adjustment Drives USDCHF Higher

The USDCHF currency pair has been a standout performer, boasting an impressive 8% surge year-to-date, with three consecutive weeks of gains.  

This upward trajectory finds its roots in the monetary policy actions of the Swiss National Bank, which notably slashed rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%, making it the first major economy to do so. Recent inflation data from Switzerland further validated this move, revealing a cooling inflation rate of 1% in March. 

This dovish stance by the Swiss National Bank has propelled the USDCHF pair higher, as investors flock to the Greenback for its potentially higher yields compared to the Swiss Franc. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s cautious stance on further rate cuts, contingent on seeing a further cooling of inflation, suggests a prolonged period of elevated U.S. rates. All eyes are now on the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data, which is expected to provide crucial insights into the labour market’s trajectory and potentially influence expectations for future rate adjustments.  


The USDCHF pair has been riding a notable uptrend, supported by its position above the 100-day moving average and within an ascending channel pattern.  

Recent price action saw a significant buildup of upside momentum during a consolidation phase, leading to a breakout and subsequent rally to the 0.90955 level. However, the rally encountered resistance as overbought RSI conditions emerged, temporarily stalling upward momentum. A retracement towards the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement Golden Ratio ensued, but the pair swiftly reversed course from this level, reaffirming the bullish trajectory. 

Should the current upside momentum persist, traders could anticipate a retest of the 0.90955 resistance level. Conversely, a resurgence of downside pressure could see interest gravitating towards the 50% Fibonacci level as a potential support point in the short term. 


The USDCHF pair has surged 8% year-to-date, bolstered by the Swiss National Bank’s rate cuts and favourable inflation data. Technically, it maintains an uptrend above the 100-day moving average, eyeing a potential retest of resistance at 0.90955. 

Sources: Swiss National Bank, Swiss Federal Statistical Office, Reuters, TradingView 

Piece Written By Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: Trive South Africa (Pty) Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive SA”), with registration number 2005/011130/07, is an authorised Financial Services Provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002. Trive SA is authorised and regulated by the South African Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) and holds FSP number 27231. Trive Financial Services Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive MU”) holds an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) Licence with licence number GB21026295 pursuant to section 29 of the Securities Act 2005, Rule 4 of the Securities Rules 2007, and the Financial Services Rules 2008. Trive MU is authorized and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission (FSC) and holds Global Business Licence number GB21026295 under Section 72(6) of the Financial Services Act. Trive SA and Trive MU are collectively known and referred to as “Trive Africa”.

Market and economic conditions are subject to sudden change which may have a material impact on the outcome of financial instruments and may not be suitable for all investors. Trive Africa and its employees assume no liability for any loss or damage (direct, indirect, consequential, or inconsequential) that may be suffered. Please consider the risks involved before you trade or invest. All trades on the Trive Africa platform are subject to the legal terms and conditions to which you agree to be bound. Brand Logos are owned by the respective companies and not by Trive Africa. The use of a company’s brand logo does not represent an endorsement of Trive Africa by the company, nor an endorsement of the company by Trive Africa, nor does it necessarily imply any contractual relationship. Images are for illustrative purposes only and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. No services are offered to stateless persons, persons under the age of 18 years, persons and/or residents of sanctioned countries or any other jurisdiction where the distribution of leveraged instruments is prohibited, and citizens of any state or country where it may be against the law of that country to trade with a South African and/or Mauritius based company and/or where the services are not made available by Trive Africa to hold an account with us. In any case, above all, it is your responsibility to avoid contravening any legislation in the country from where you are at the time.

CFDs and other margin products are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. See our full Risk Disclosure and Terms of Business for further details. Some or all of the services and products are not offered to citizens or residents of certain jurisdictions where international sanctions or local regulatory requirements restrict or prohibit them.