Nasdaq100 Futures Bounce Back Swiftly

The Nasdaq100 Futures (CME: NQ) concluded Wednesday’s session with a notable shift, breaking a seven-day winning streak by shedding 57 basis points.  

This dip was orchestrated against the backdrop of robust U.S. economic data, particularly the surge in December retail sales, surpassing expectations at an impressive 5.6%. The stellar retail performance prompted a recalibration of market expectations, with the probability of a March rate cut dwindling to 53.8%, down from 70.2% a mere week ago. 

However, the resilience of the Nasdaq100 Futures was swiftly showcased in the London session on Thursday, rebounding with vigour, gaining 86 basis points and reclaiming lost ground. The catalyst for this rebound emerged from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest contract semiconductor maker, reporting optimistic quarterly profits and projecting over 20% revenue growth, primarily fuelled by the soaring demand for artificial intelligence chips. This positive outlook rippled through U.S. chip stocks, propelling them higher in premarket hours.  


In the early days of 2024, the Nasdaq100 Futures embarked on a tumultuous journey, veering beneath the 100-day moving average following a swift December surge.  

At a formidable resistance of 17165.25, the index faced headwinds driven by overbought conditions in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Yet, amid a subsequent descent through crucial Fibonacci Retracement levels, a lifeline emerged just above the 61.80% Golden Ratio, accompanied by oversold RSI conditions. 

This pivotal juncture acted as a turning point, thwarting a sustained move towards the significant support at 15792.50, crafted during the December 2023 rally. The Golden Ratio became a beacon, empowering buyers and instigating a bullish trend that propelled the index above the 100-day moving average. While a minor dip near resistance posed a temporary challenge, the index futures swiftly rebounded, showcasing prevailing bullish momentum and hinting at a potential retest of the 17165.25 resistance level. Conversely, the 100-day moving average stands as a point of interest to the downside should bearish sentiment gain traction in this dynamic market narrative. 


In a whirlwind of market dynamics, the Nasdaq100 Futures rebounded with resilience, gaining 86 basis points after a brief dip orchestrated by robust retail data. Fuelled by positive cues from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the index hints at a potential retest of the 17165.25 resistance level. 

Sources: CME, Reuters, TradingView 

Piece Written By Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: Trive South Africa (Pty) Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive SA”), with registration number 2005/011130/07, is an authorised Financial Services Provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002. Trive SA is authorised and regulated by the South African Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) and holds FSP number 27231. Trive Financial Services Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive MU”) holds an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) Licence with licence number GB21026295 pursuant to section 29 of the Securities Act 2005, Rule 4 of the Securities Rules 2007, and the Financial Services Rules 2008. Trive MU is authorized and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission (FSC) and holds Global Business Licence number GB21026295 under Section 72(6) of the Financial Services Act. Trive SA and Trive MU are collectively known and referred to as “Trive Africa”.

Market and economic conditions are subject to sudden change which may have a material impact on the outcome of financial instruments and may not be suitable for all investors. Trive Africa and its employees assume no liability for any loss or damage (direct, indirect, consequential, or inconsequential) that may be suffered. Please consider the risks involved before you trade or invest. All trades on the Trive Africa platform are subject to the legal terms and conditions to which you agree to be bound. Brand Logos are owned by the respective companies and not by Trive Africa. The use of a company’s brand logo does not represent an endorsement of Trive Africa by the company, nor an endorsement of the company by Trive Africa, nor does it necessarily imply any contractual relationship. Images are for illustrative purposes only and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. No services are offered to stateless persons, persons under the age of 18 years, persons and/or residents of sanctioned countries or any other jurisdiction where the distribution of leveraged instruments is prohibited, and citizens of any state or country where it may be against the law of that country to trade with a South African and/or Mauritius based company and/or where the services are not made available by Trive Africa to hold an account with us. In any case, above all, it is your responsibility to avoid contravening any legislation in the country from where you are at the time.

CFDs and other margin products are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. See our full Risk Disclosure and Terms of Business for further details. Some or all of the services and products are not offered to citizens or residents of certain jurisdictions where international sanctions or local regulatory requirements restrict or prohibit them.