Silver Spot Price Buried by Stronger Dollar

The silver spot price (XAGUSD) has recently dipped to levels not seen in two weeks. This drop comes amidst uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate cut schedule, which has overshadowed the safe-haven demand sparked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  

With recent robust economic indicators from the US signalling resilience in the face of higher interest rates, several Federal Reserve officials have advocated for patience in considering rate cuts, waiting for clear signs of inflation sustainably returning to its 2% target. Consequently, the US dollar has strengthened, exerting downward pressure on silver prices. However, it’s worth noting the latest Silver Institute report forecasts a surge in silver demand, projecting it to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, the second-highest level on record, primarily fuelled by growing industrial demand. 


On the 4H chart, a descending channel is present, but the price action is teasing at a potential breakout. Volumes have been declining, suggesting that the bearish run may have lost steam, with the RSI returning to neutral grounds. 

If the price breaks through the dynamic resistance of the channel, the 25-SMA (green line) resistance could trigger a retracement. However, any movement higher could trigger a breakout above $22.479/ounce. The 100-SMA (orange line) then offers additional resistance near the Fibonacci midpoint at $22.702/ounce, while the 50-SMA (blue line) backs the 61.8% Fibonacci golden ratio near $22.835/ounce, creating a challenging barrier to cross in the upcoming sessions. 

If the price remains below the 25-SMA, the bearish trend within the channel could continue. Support at $22.225/ounce and $22.051/ounce could then be of importance to prevent a steeper downtrend toward the neckline support established at $21.886/ounce.  


The silver spot price has fallen toward two-week lows as the US dollar found strength on a hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve. A breakout from the descending channel is on the cards if the price can clear the 25-SMA resistance in the upcoming sessions. 

Sources: Koyfin, Tradingview 

Piece written by Tiaan van Aswegen, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: Trive South Africa (Pty) Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive SA”), with registration number 2005/011130/07, is an authorised Financial Services Provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002. Trive SA is authorised and regulated by the South African Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) and holds FSP number 27231. Trive Financial Services Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive MU”) holds an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) Licence with licence number GB21026295 pursuant to section 29 of the Securities Act 2005, Rule 4 of the Securities Rules 2007, and the Financial Services Rules 2008. Trive MU is authorized and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission (FSC) and holds Global Business Licence number GB21026295 under Section 72(6) of the Financial Services Act. Trive SA and Trive MU are collectively known and referred to as “Trive Africa”.

Market and economic conditions are subject to sudden change which may have a material impact on the outcome of financial instruments and may not be suitable for all investors. Trive Africa and its employees assume no liability for any loss or damage (direct, indirect, consequential, or inconsequential) that may be suffered. Please consider the risks involved before you trade or invest. All trades on the Trive Africa platform are subject to the legal terms and conditions to which you agree to be bound. Brand Logos are owned by the respective companies and not by Trive Africa. The use of a company’s brand logo does not represent an endorsement of Trive Africa by the company, nor an endorsement of the company by Trive Africa, nor does it necessarily imply any contractual relationship. Images are for illustrative purposes only and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. No services are offered to stateless persons, persons under the age of 18 years, persons and/or residents of sanctioned countries or any other jurisdiction where the distribution of leveraged instruments is prohibited, and citizens of any state or country where it may be against the law of that country to trade with a South African and/or Mauritius based company and/or where the services are not made available by Trive Africa to hold an account with us. In any case, above all, it is your responsibility to avoid contravening any legislation in the country from where you are at the time.

CFDs and other margin products are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. See our full Risk Disclosure and Terms of Business for further details. Some or all of the services and products are not offered to citizens or residents of certain jurisdictions where international sanctions or local regulatory requirements restrict or prohibit them.