USDZAR on the Front Foot

The USDZAR currency pair showed robust performance last week, gaining a solid 2%, and it continued its positive momentum into Monday’s session. The upward movement was driven by a shift in trader sentiment following the release of last week’s job data.  

The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report exceeded expectations, with 216,000 jobs added, affirming the labour market’s resilience. This unexpected strength prompted traders to reassess their predictions on potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Consequently, the likelihood of lower rates after the March meeting decreased from 88% a week ago to slightly above 60%. Looking ahead, Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could introduce further dynamics to the currency pair, presenting diverse opportunities for traders in the upcoming week. 


On the 4H chart, an ascending channel is present, with the 25-SMA (green line) providing support at 18.6815. The recent crossing of this 25-SMA above the 50-SMA (blue line) and 100-SMA (orange line) confirms the momentum tilt in the bulls’ favour. 

If the currency pair manages to move above 18.7098, the channel formation could hold firm, leading to a potential retest of resistance at 18.8021. A supply zone at 18.8918 could then be a level of interest as it converges with the dynamic resistance of the channel and could determine whether a pullback within the channel will occur or whether a breakout is on the cards for a steeper uptrend toward 18.9980. 

However, a leg below the 25-SMA could trigger a longer pullback toward 18.5911, near the dynamic support of the channel. A potential channel breakdown could see the pair looking for support at 18.4894, the Fibonacci midpoint, which could act as a pivot point for a retest of the breakdown level. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci golden ratio could be a level of interest if the breakdown occurs, offering further support at 18.4071. 


The USDZAR currency pair continued its bullish momentum from the prior week into the Monday session, underpinned by support from the 25-SMA. This support at 18.6815 could be crucial in the upcoming sessions, as the currency pair could trade in thin ranges leading up to the US CPI report on Thursday. 

Sources: Koyfin, Tradingview 

Piece written by Tiaan van Aswegen, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: Trive South Africa (Pty) Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive SA”), with registration number 2005/011130/07, is an authorised Financial Services Provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002. Trive SA is authorised and regulated by the South African Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) and holds FSP number 27231. Trive Financial Services Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive MU”) holds an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) Licence with licence number GB21026295 pursuant to section 29 of the Securities Act 2005, Rule 4 of the Securities Rules 2007, and the Financial Services Rules 2008. Trive MU is authorized and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission (FSC) and holds Global Business Licence number GB21026295 under Section 72(6) of the Financial Services Act. Trive SA and Trive MU are collectively known and referred to as “Trive Africa”.

Market and economic conditions are subject to sudden change which may have a material impact on the outcome of financial instruments and may not be suitable for all investors. Trive Africa and its employees assume no liability for any loss or damage (direct, indirect, consequential, or inconsequential) that may be suffered. Please consider the risks involved before you trade or invest. All trades on the Trive Africa platform are subject to the legal terms and conditions to which you agree to be bound. Brand Logos are owned by the respective companies and not by Trive Africa. The use of a company’s brand logo does not represent an endorsement of Trive Africa by the company, nor an endorsement of the company by Trive Africa, nor does it necessarily imply any contractual relationship. Images are for illustrative purposes only and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. No services are offered to stateless persons, persons under the age of 18 years, persons and/or residents of sanctioned countries or any other jurisdiction where the distribution of leveraged instruments is prohibited, and citizens of any state or country where it may be against the law of that country to trade with a South African and/or Mauritius based company and/or where the services are not made available by Trive Africa to hold an account with us. In any case, above all, it is your responsibility to avoid contravening any legislation in the country from where you are at the time.

CFDs and other margin products are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. See our full Risk Disclosure and Terms of Business for further details. Some or all of the services and products are not offered to citizens or residents of certain jurisdictions where international sanctions or local regulatory requirements restrict or prohibit them.