In an economic saga that keeps us all at the edge of our seats, the U.S. Federal Reserve has resumed its quest to combat inflation by raising interest rates once more. FED Chair, Jerome Powell, leaves market participants with the tantalizing possibility of further rate hikes but shrouds the future in mystery, implying that the rate path in months to come depends on incoming data that has so far pointed toward a resilient U.S. economy.
After a brief pause in June, policymakers have once again tightened their grip on borrowing costs during the latest meeting held on Wednesday, raising rates by a further 25 basis points. This marks the eleventh time since March 2022 that they have taken this daring step to curb inflation’s rampant advances. Unanimous in their decision, the Federal Reserve boosted the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate, scaling the heights to 5.25% to 5.50%, a level unseen in 22 years.
Jerome Powell pointed to encouraging signs that these rate hikes are having the desired impact on curbing price pressures but warned that there may still be a while to go before returning inflation to the elusive 2% target.
As market participants eagerly await the next chapter of this unfolding tale, Powell remains elusive, refusing to reveal the exact timing of the next rate hike, if any. Market players are forced to anticipate a slew of economic reports that will determine the FED’s future actions. Two jobs reports and two CPI reports will all play a role in shaping the destiny of the U.S. economy, and whether further rate hikes are warranted come the next rate meeting in September.
With bated breath, the markets reacted to Powell’s every word. Stocks advanced, while treasury yields and the dollar fell, showcasing the intrigue surrounding the FED’s every move. Swap traders try to decipher the odds, speculating on the likelihood of an additional quarter-point hike before the year’s end. The stakes remain high, and the tension palpable, with just over a 50% probability of another bump in the FED’s tightening cycle.
This narrative has been building for over a year, with the FED pursuing its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s to tame inflation, which roared to a 40-year high in 2022. The plot thickens as we analyze the aftermath of the latest rate hike, with recent reports having painted a picture of an economy that valiantly stands its ground against higher interest rates. Uncertainty looms while investors ponder whether a subsequent hike will become a reality. The latest data on consumer prices offered a glimmer of hope as inflation seemingly took a step back. Still, core inflation remains sticky, hence the FED’s decision to hike rates by a further quarter-percentage.
As the economic odyssey unfolds, market participants are left with the looming question of whether the September meeting will witness another rate hike or if the FED will opt for a different path, guided by the subtle whispers of soft inflation data.
Source: Bloomberg
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