DAX Eyes Recovery Amid ECB Rate Cut Speculation

The GER 40 Index Futures (EUREX: FDAX) confronts a dynamic market environment influenced by economic indicators, central bank policies, and corporate performance. Recent developments suggest a potential shift in sentiment as investors digest signals of a rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB). 

Following the European Central Bank’s hint at possible interest rate cuts as early as June, optimism has swelled among investors. The ECB’s focus on addressing inflation concerns underscores its commitment to fostering economic recovery. However, uncertainties persist, especially concerning the timing and magnitude of rate adjustments. The markets keenly await further insights from ECB officials, particularly on the potential impacts of these policy shifts on the German economy. 

Attention now shifts to US corporate earnings, with big banks like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup reporting today. Strong earnings could bolster investor sentiment and potentially lift the DAX. Also, speeches by ECB officials like Luis de Guindos and FOMC members like Raphael Bostic could provide further clues on future rate cuts, impacting market direction. 

Technical Analysis 

The 4-hour chart shows that the GER 40 Index Futures exhibit signs of stabilisation within a descending channel pattern, aiming to halt a three-day losing streak. Despite trading below the 20-SMA (green line) and 50-SMA (blue line), the index hovers just above the 100-SMA (orange line), suggesting a potential reversal in momentum. Notably, the rising RSI nearing the 50.00 level hints at mounting bullish pressure. 

A failure to break above the channel would leave short-term trading opportunities towards the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level (18,078). A break below initial support would leave the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level (17,843) and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level (17,608) as the next levels of significance lower.  

However, with the rising RSI (44.82) approaching the 50.00 level, a sustained break above the midlevel and the channel could offer short-term trading opportunities towards the 18,577 resistance level higher. A break above the initial resistance could confirm the bullish momentum, likely bringing the major resistance level of 18,839 into play. 


The GER 40 Futures faces a period of potential volatility. The interplay between central bank policy developments, corporate earnings reports, and technical indicators will determine the near-term direction. A break above the channel resistance and the 20-SMA could signal a bullish reversal, while a breakdown below channel support and the 38.20% Fibonacci level could open the door for further downside. 

Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics, Reuters, European Central Bank. 

Piece written by Mfanafuthi Mhlongo, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

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