Sasol Shares Soar on Emissions Appeal Win

Sasol Limited (JSE: SOL) shares surged over 5.6% on Monday following a court victory regarding its sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions regulation. The company won an appeal to implement load-based limits, a method alternative to concentration-based limits, for measuring emissions from its Secunda boilers. This decision allows Sasol more flexibility in meeting environmental requirements and avoids potential production disruptions. However, environmental groups criticize the ruling, arguing it will allow higher emissions than initially mandated. 

While the court decision is a positive development for Sasol, the company still faces significant challenges. Sasol’s share price remains down over 13% year-to-date and over 35% in the past year. Pressure to reduce emissions and transition to cleaner energy sources remains high, and investor sentiment regarding Sasol’s environmental practices is a key concern. 

Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) 

The daily chart outlook presents a mixed picture. On the positive side, the share price is trading above the 50-SMA (blue line) and is perched around the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential bullish continuation. The RSI at 66.44 sits comfortably above 50, suggesting upward momentum.  

With the upward-sloping RSI trading comfortably above the 50.00 level, a sustained push higher might bring the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level (golden ratio) at 16,784 cents into focus in the near term. A sustained break above the golden ratio on significant volume would leave the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level (17,752 cents) and the resistance at 18,984 cents firmly within the bulls’ reach in the coming sessions.  

However, there are cautionary signs. The price remains below the downward-sloping 100-SMA (orange line) and 200-SMA (red line), signifying a longer-term downtrend. Additionally, the RSI approaching overbought territory could indicate a potential pullback. Therefore, renewed selling pressure and failure to sustain a push above the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level would leave the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level (15,426 cents) as the initial level of interest lower. A successful break below the 15,426 cents could confirm the bearish momentum and would leave the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level (14,585 cents) and the major support at 13,226 cents as the next levels of significance lower. 


The court ruling on emissions measurement offers some near-term relief for Sasol, reflected in the positive share price movement. Technically, a sustained push above the 50% Fibonacci level could see the price target the 61.80% level (16,784 cents) in the near future. Conversely, a failure to hold the current level could lead to a pullback towards the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement (15,426 cents).  

Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, Reuters, Engineering News, MoneyWeb. 

Piece written by Mfanafuthi Mhlongo, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

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