S&P500 Futures Dip after Record-Setting Week

This week has been eventful for S&P500 Futures (CME: ES) traders, with the index futures hitting a fresh all-time high.  

Markets responded positively to a slight dip in April’s inflation compared to March, pushing the index futures up by 1.40% for the week so far. This gain positions the S&P500 Futures in positive territory for a fourth consecutive week. The year-on-year inflation rate settled at 3.4%, and core inflation slowed to its lowest pace in three years, fuelling hopes for interest-rate cuts this year. 

Market sentiment reflects a 67% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with some speculating on a possible rate cut as early as July, currently priced in at 29.2%, slightly higher than last week’s expectations. Despite the overall positive trend, momentum faltered with a dip in Thursday’s session, as ten of eleven S&P sectors finished lower. Consumer discretionary, materials, and industrials led the decline, indicating sector-specific pressures. This dynamic interplay of economic indicators and market expectations leaves investors eager to see how these factors will shape the future trajectory of S&P500 Futures. 


The S&P500 Futures have been experiencing an uptrend, supported by technical indicators such as trading above the 100-day moving average within an ascending channel pattern. After finding support at the channel’s lower boundary around the 5216.75 level, the index futures rallied to achieve new highs. 

However, the recent surge led to overbought RSI conditions, prompting a downturn at the 5349.00 resistance level. Currently, the index futures have retraced towards the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level, indicating a temporary pullback.  

Market sentiment suggests that if downside pressures persist, the 50% Fibonacci level could attract interest as a potential support level. Conversely, a resurgence in upside momentum could lead to a retest of the 5349.00 resistance level. This dynamic interplay of technical analysis and market sentiment underscores the ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the S&P500 Futures market, leaving traders vigilant for signs of the next significant move. 


Despite sector dips, the S&P500 Futures soared to record highs amid positive market sentiment fueled by hopes for interest-rate cuts. Technical levels indicate an uptrend, with key resistance at 5349.00 and potential support at the 50% Fibonacci level. Traders remain watchful for market dynamics shaping future movements. 

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CME, Reuters, TradingView 

Piece Written By Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

Disclaimer: Trive South Africa (Pty) Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive SA”), with registration number 2005/011130/07, is an authorised Financial Services Provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 37 of 2002. Trive SA is authorised and regulated by the South African Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) and holds FSP number 27231. Trive Financial Services Ltd (hereinafter referred to as “Trive MU”) holds an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) Licence with licence number GB21026295 pursuant to section 29 of the Securities Act 2005, Rule 4 of the Securities Rules 2007, and the Financial Services Rules 2008. Trive MU is authorized and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission (FSC) and holds Global Business Licence number GB21026295 under Section 72(6) of the Financial Services Act. Trive SA and Trive MU are collectively known and referred to as “Trive Africa”.

Market and economic conditions are subject to sudden change which may have a material impact on the outcome of financial instruments and may not be suitable for all investors. Trive Africa and its employees assume no liability for any loss or damage (direct, indirect, consequential, or inconsequential) that may be suffered. Please consider the risks involved before you trade or invest. All trades on the Trive Africa platform are subject to the legal terms and conditions to which you agree to be bound. Brand Logos are owned by the respective companies and not by Trive Africa. The use of a company’s brand logo does not represent an endorsement of Trive Africa by the company, nor an endorsement of the company by Trive Africa, nor does it necessarily imply any contractual relationship. Images are for illustrative purposes only and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. No services are offered to stateless persons, persons under the age of 18 years, persons and/or residents of sanctioned countries or any other jurisdiction where the distribution of leveraged instruments is prohibited, and citizens of any state or country where it may be against the law of that country to trade with a South African and/or Mauritius based company and/or where the services are not made available by Trive Africa to hold an account with us. In any case, above all, it is your responsibility to avoid contravening any legislation in the country from where you are at the time.

CFDs and other margin products are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how these products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. See our full Risk Disclosure and Terms of Business for further details. Some or all of the services and products are not offered to citizens or residents of certain jurisdictions where international sanctions or local regulatory requirements restrict or prohibit them.